"The first English PSA 10 Crystal Lugia just sold for $4,650", posted to the investing sub on September twenty eighth. Thirteen Crystal Lugia threads have run since the set landed on September sixteenth. We upvoted a fair few of them.
The Crystal Lugia 30th Celebration PSA 10 price rests on one sale, and our count behind it is zero. One sale. That is the whole record as of September twenty ninth.
What the sub argued about for a fortnight
Release day ran the other way entirely. "Before the set released it was selling for $700", one collector wrote that morning. "Prices have fallen below $300", the same post added.
Four days later came a hot take thread. Demand held up, it argued, because almost nobody could buy 30th product at a sane price. The same post put the pull odds near one in three hundred.
Then September twenty eighth arrived with a slab in it. Two threads that day, both turning on what a $4,650 sale means for everyone holding a raw copy.
On X the same day our sweep pulled sixteen more posts on this card. One of them ran a single line. "Where can I short the 30th crystal lugia."
The raw board on September twenty ninth
We read the live listings ourselves today. Sixty eight. That is how many copies sat on the board, cheapest near three hundred fifteen dollars.
Our own daily snapshots put the raw card near two hundred fifty dollars on September seventeenth. It slid to near two hundred twenty eight by the twentieth. On September twenty ninth it read near three hundred ninety.
So the raw tape climbed by roughly half in nine days, and it climbed after the slab sale rather than before it. That is one direction of travel on one card. Our daily price movers board carries the same reading.
No Crystal Lugia 30th Celebration PSA 10 has been counted
Here is the line nobody in those threads reached for. Our tracker holds no population for this printing at all, because the newest set it counts released in July.
Zero. Every price being argued over is a price with no census under it.
The card it reprints does have one. Aquapolis Lugia 149, January of 2003, Naoyo Kimura art, the same Crystal Type body. 3,448 copies graded and 138 of them tens.
Twenty three years of submissions built that number. Eight months. That is what the last set pulling this generously needed to reach its own count.
Ascended Heroes landed in January, and its Pikachu ex 276 alone carries 11,911 graded copies and 7,358 tens. We opened that census in the Ascended Heroes count behind Mega Gengar ex 284. The sealed half of this run got the same treatment in what the 30th Celebration mini tins were fetching in September.
The original's ten trades somewhere else entirely, and we read its price today. Near eighty thousand dollars on PriceCharting, September twenty ninth. The reprint is thirteen days old.
The objection we have no answer to
The hot take thread made the argument a census cannot touch. Pull odds near one in three hundred, the first reprint this art has ever had, and product nobody could buy at retail.
The collector who opened it put the point plainly. "Demand is still incredibly high due to how hard it's been for most people to get 30th product at reasonable prices."