PACK PREDICTOR
The odds of pulling one named card out of a booster pack, the packs that takes, and what those packs cost. Rates come from 112,900 packs opened and counted by the TCGplayer Authentication Center, not from estimates. 21 sets and 1,560 chaseable cards.
PICK A SET
every set with a measured pull rate sampleNo set matches that. Only sets with a counted pull rate sample appear here.
PICK THE CARD YOU WANT
only cards at a rarity whose odds were measuredNo card in this set matches that search.
How the odds are worked out
The Pokemon Company has never published pack odds for the paper card game, so there is only one kind of honest number here: counted ones. Before a set releases, the TCGplayer Authentication Center opens packs in bulk and records what comes out, then publishes the rate for each rarity with the sample size and a 95 percent confidence interval. Those articles are the source for every rate on this page, and each set links to its own.
Turning a rarity's rate into one card's rate needs one more step, and that step is an assumption rather than a measurement. TCGplayer assume the cards at a rarity are printed in equal quantities, so the rarity's odds divide evenly among the cards that share it. They say so in those words, and report their own counts supporting it apart from one card they flag. Pokemon publishes no print runs, so it cannot be settled from outside. Granting it, a set with seven special illustration rares is a far better chase than one with thirty two at the same headline rate. The card counts come from the card database rather than the articles, and every rarity is checked before it ships: the rate divided by the card count has to land inside TCGplayer's own published interval for a specific card of that rarity. A rarity that fails is dropped rather than shown with a warning, which is why sets from the Sword and Shield era are missing here. Their published rates are grouped by card type in a way that cannot be matched to a card list without guessing.
Pack prices are the live TCGplayer market figure for that set's own single booster pack, and the field is editable, because what you actually pay for packs is rarely the market price. The averages are the mean of a geometric distribution, which is the honest answer to "how many packs on average" and also a number that wins less than half the time. That is what the median beside it, the curve, and the simulator are for. Full formulas and limits are on the methodology page.
Nothing here is financial advice, and none of it predicts your next pack. Packs are independent draws. Opening a hundred without a hit does not shorten the hundred and first.
Pull rate questions
Where do these pull rates come from?
The TCGplayer Authentication Center, which opens packs of a set in bulk before release and counts what comes out, then publishes the rate for every rarity with the sample size and a 95 percent confidence interval. Across the 21 sets covered here that is 112,900 packs opened and recorded. The Pokemon Company has never published pack odds for the paper card game, so counted samples are the only real data that exists. Each set panel links to its own article.
How do you get from a rarity's odds to one specific card?
By dividing, on an assumption that is TCGplayer's rather than ours: that the cards at a rarity are printed in equal quantities, so the rarity's per pack rate splits evenly among them. Twenty two illustration rares at 10.89 percent a pack works out to 0.495 percent for any one of them. TCGplayer state it as an assumption and report their own per card counts supporting it, with one exception they flag: in the 151 sample, Illustration Rare Caterpie came in below its rarity's lower bound, which they say could be noise or could mean it was short printed. Pokemon publishes no print runs, so nobody outside the print shop can settle it. What can be checked is the reconstruction: dividing their rarity rate by a card count from an entirely different source, the pokemon-tcg-data database, has to land back on their published specific card rate, and across all 107 rarity rows here it does, inside their own intervals. A rarity where it does not is dropped rather than shown.
Why is my favourite old set missing?
Because nobody counted it, or because what was counted cannot be matched to a card list. There are no measured samples for the WOTC, EX, Diamond and Pearl, Black and White, XY or Sun and Moon eras at all. Sword and Shield sets do have published rates, but they are grouped by card type rather than by rarity, and a full art V and an alt art V are the same rarity in every card database, so splitting those odds would mean guessing. Guessing is exactly what this page exists not to do.
Why is the average number of packs higher than the coin flip number?
Because the distribution is lopsided. Most chases end early and a few run enormously long, and the long ones drag the mean up past the point where half of chases are already over. Chasing to the average wins less than half the time. That gap is the single most misread number in pack odds, which is why the median, the curve and the simulator are all on the page beside it.
Does the cost figure mean ripping packs is a bad deal?
It means chasing one named card is expensive, which is a narrower claim. The cost shown is what it takes on average to see that one card, and it ignores everything else in every pack you open, which for most sets is where the rest of the value sits. What the comparison does settle is the specific question of whether hunting a particular chase card beats buying that card, and for high end cards it usually is not close. Graded and sealed Pokemon is a speculative, illiquid market and none of this is financial advice.
Do the odds change as I open more packs without hitting?
No. Every pack is an independent draw at the same rate. Opening two hundred without a hit does not improve pack two hundred and one. Box mapping and per box guarantees can change this inside a single sealed box, but nothing on this page assumes them.